economics

June 28, 2009

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Filed under: Uncategorized — ktetaichinh @ 3:30 am
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  • Nghiên cứu và phát triển: Economic research and economic growth: Evidence from East Asian economies (J. of Asian Economics March 2009) — Liên hệ giữa nghiên cứu kinh tế và phát triển ở các nuớc Đông Á.  Ở Hong Kong thì liên hệ là hai chiều.  Nhật thì là một chiều (càng phát triển thì càng nhiều nghiên cứu).  Đài Loan và Hàn Quốc thì ngược lại (càng nghiên cứu thì càng phát triển).  Ở Singapore thì sự tương quan này là nhỏ, không đáng kể. (Việt Nam không đuợc nói đến, có lẽ vì … không nghiên cứu mà cũng chẳng phàt triển!) BÀI THẬT HAY! Như tôi đã kêu gào: Ta cần biết ta hơn nữa ◄◄


June 17, 2009

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Filed under: Uncategorized — ktetaichinh @ 10:42 pm
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NYT

1. Krugman: The Big Hate
2. Rich: The Obama Haters’ Silent Enablers
3. Economy: America’s Sea of Red Ink Was Years in the Making
4. Health: Disease of Rich Extends Its Pain to Middle Class
5. World: Defiance Grows as Iran’s Leader Sets Vote Review


June 12, 2009

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Filed under: Uncategorized — ktetaichinh @ 3:24 pm
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Smoke Signals: Why a Tobacco Giant Is Backing a Tough New Antismoking Bill

June 10, 2009

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Filed under: Uncategorized — ktetaichinh @ 10:37 pm
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NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar extended gains and U.S. government debt prices fell on Monday on fears the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates sooner than expected after last week’s surprisingly strong jobs data.

The selling of bonds followed a steep sell-off on Friday after the U.S. Labor Department said employers cut far fewer jobs in May than had been forecast, sparking speculation that a recession might end this year and later spur higher rates.

June 7, 2009

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Filed under: Uncategorized — ktetaichinh @ 1:22 am
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China Willing to Buy as Much as $50 Billion in IMF Bonds

June 6, 2009

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Filed under: Uncategorized — ktetaichinh @ 2:33 am
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Which Restaurant Stocks Should Whet Investors’ Appetites?

Market Wrap: Choppy Trading Leaves Treasury Yields Lower Equities were also mixed throughout the day but ended higher.

China’s Yuan Is Gradually Going Global Yet progress for the currency is likely to be slow.

Market Forces: ECB Relief Will Remain Moderate There is still a chill in the air; private sector lending will remain subdued.

Credit Rally Counters Treasury Selloff Financial conditions have not deteriorated despite the backup in Treasuries.

As Asset Prices Stabilize, Wealth Effect on Spending Fades Energy and jobs remain important risks to recovery.

Market Wrap: Euro, Swiss Franc Climb Despite Poor Data European stock and government bond markets were mixed.
Officials Call for EU Agriculture, Debt Policy Reform But change is unlikely in the near future.

;Generous Motors’ Retirees Face Bankruptcy Questions The automaker supports half a million U.S. households with income and insurance.

Home Sales Could Keep Rising if Mortgage Rates Cooperate The pending sales index rose 7.6% in April, the most in seven years.

U.K. Financial Rallies May Be Overestimating Improvement With banks in distress, the economy is unlikely to recover until next year.
Market Preview: Treasury Yields Ease a Bit Amid Surge U.S. stock futures are higher.
Unemployment Soars in the Baltics Europe’s emerging economies have been hit hard.
Finland’s Trade Deficit Points to Sharp GDP Decline The trade balance fell into deficit in March for the third time in the last four months.
European Market Preview: June 2 Euro weakened on rising unemployment.
Market Wrap: Currencies Reverse Gains Only the yen has gained on repatriation of earnings.
Fuel Price Hikes May End China’s CPI and PPI Fall The authorities maintain tight control over energy costs.

U.S. Industry Outlook: Ready for a TurnaroundManufacturing has improved the supply and demand balance ahead of recovery.
The Financial Crisis in the Long RunThe U.S. faces a period of higher capital costs and possibily diminished productivity growth.
U.S. Chartbook: Guarding Against OptimismPositive surprises have given way to data with a mixed hue.

Rising Foreclosures Could Still Doom RecoveryThe government’s timid response means unneccessary pain for homeowners and the economy.

A New Era for Credit Card IssuersA new law will curb some long-standing practices, but the industry can live with it.

June 3, 2009

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Filed under: Uncategorized — ktetaichinh @ 11:09 pm
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Green Shoots or Red Herring?- A case study of Chinese raw-material demand.– MorningStar

China and the Global Pulp Market: 2005 through Summer 2008
Chinese pulp imports expanded at a very healthy 11% compound annual rate from 2004 to 2007. While certainly an impressive growth rate, it’s worth noting that the expansion came off a relatively small base, so China’s share of global demand remained relatively modest compared with other commodities like copper and iron ore.Meanwhile, global pulp prices increased dramatically over the period, a phenomenon less attributable to demand growth than to incipient supply constraints in major supplier geographies: Russian log export tariffs, an Indonesian logging ban, and a dramatic decline in North American lumber production (which curtailed residual wood chip availability). With these traditional supply sources increasingly constrained, global pulp prices reached a peak by the summer of 2008. Massive rents accrued to the low-cost sources of supply, particularly South American producers like Aracruz

China and the Global Pulp Market: Fall 2008 to Present
The tide turned dramatically against pulp producers in the fall of 2008 as economic troubles began to manifest around the globe. Newspaper and magazine circulation and page counts dropped, mail volumes declined, and plummeting consumer durable purchases meant fewer corrugated boxes were needed. Global pulp demand started to tail off accordingly, a situation further exacerbated by trade credit problems. Worldwide pulp shipments dropped 4% in September and 9% in October, while Chinese pulp imports fell 27% and 23% in September and October, respectively. Not surprisingly, global pulp inventories swelled, hammering prices around the world. Northern Bleached Softwood Kraft pulp (NBSK) delivered to China fell to $518 per ton by November, down from $745 per ton in July.

At this point, we began to see Chinese purchasing trends reverse: November imports rose 12% year over year, followed by a staggering 53% year-over-year increase in December. Much of this, we speculate, was inventory restocking following drawdowns in the previous months. China’s apparently healthy appetite for imported pulp continued into the new year, with January, February, and March imports posting 70%, 47%, and 90% gains over prior-year levels–far above what normal restocking activity might require…..

Inventory Building
To some extent, inventory building in excess of requirements seems to be taking place: Chinese buyers are taking advantage of low prices, a phenomenon apparent in many other raw materials. If this were the only factor at work, we could expect Chinese demand to collapse in the coming months, eliminating the lone support keeping pulp prices from falling further. Yet given the magnitude of the import growth, it seems unlikely that inventory building can explain the entire disconnect….

The Chinese central government appears to have played a role in promoting substitution. The PRC’s 11th Five Year Plan, issued in 2005 and covering the years 2006-10, included provisions to close down much of China’s nonwood pulp capacity as well as small capacity wood pulp mills. Yet given the fact that in the two years following Beijing’s edict (2006 and 2007), Chinese consumption of domestic pulp increased at a faster rate (8.1% annual rate) than imported pulp (5.5% annual rate), we speculate few closures actually occurred. With this unimpressive track record in mind, we should be careful not to overstate Beijing’s ability to exert control over local actors.

It seems reasonable to conclude that sky-high imported pulp prices explain paper producers’ previous unwillingness to follow Beijing’s marching orders. Interestingly, producers appear to have become more willing to accede to Beijing’s plans now that imported pulp prices have fallen so much. Simply put, we think imported pulp has reached a price (around $500-$550 per ton CIF) at which it can effectively crowd out lower-quality domestic pulp production–with or without government fiat. Interestingly, a similar dynamic seems to be at play in the Chinese steel industry, where producers have increasingly turned from lower-quality domestic iron ore supplies to higher-quality imports after the price of the latter had fallen sufficiently to promote substitution.

NYT

1. World: Search Is On for Wreckage of Missing Air France Jet
2. Krugman: Reagan Did It
3. World: Wreckage of Air France Jet Is Found, Brazil Says
4. Style: For Teenagers, Hello Means ‘How About a Hug?’
5. Business: The 31-Year-Old in Charge of Dismantling G.M.

Consensus Forecast- May 2009

Consensus Forecasts, G-7 and Western Europe: Sample Copy

Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts: Sample Copy

Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts: Sample Copy

Latin America Consensus Forecasts: Sample Copy

Consensus Forecasts USA: Sample Copy

Energy & Metals Consensus Forecasts: Sample Copy

Current Economics: Sample Copy

Economist

  1. Fighting the Pakistani Taliban: A necessary catastrophe
  2. America grapples with Israel: What did Barack Obama truly feel?
  3. China, America and the yuan: Time for a Beijing bargain
  1. Government and business in America: Piling on
  1. The world economy: Drowning, not waving?
  2. Pricey oil and the world economy: Hope and anxiety

Consumers have not forgotten the pain of high oil prices in 2008, when a barrel of the black stuff peaked at $147. In rich countries commuters squealed especially, not only because of the expense—rich-world consumers found that they were forced to spend a larger, if still low, share of their income on transport—but also because of the volatility of the price and the sheer speed of the increases. As higher oil prices nudged up transport costs and energy bills, inflation began to rise. Carmakers were affected too, as demand for new vehicles slumped. The suddenness of the price rise left little room for consumers, companies or governments to adapt smoothly.n many poorer countries higher oil prices caused greater hardship. For oil-importers, at least, higher prices played havoc with government finances, cutting into budgets for other kinds of spending. For poorer consumers, the associated rise in food prices affected a larger slice of their spending, provoking social unrest in many countries. Along with the rise in the oil price, food prices have again been creeping upwards recently.

Many poorer countries would also be affected if rising oil prices hamper global trade. For economies that depend upon being within global supply chains, making or assembling goods that are then shipped to rich-world consumers, rising transport costs are particularly unwelcome. Given the vast numbers of people employed by export-oriented firms, from Cambodia to Bangladesh, any repatriation of production closer to final markets could prove painful. For some poorer countries, most obviously oil-exporters, rising commodity prices would be beneficial.

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